Yintoni i-hindsight bias kwaye yeyiphi imizekelo eqhelekileyo ngokubanzi?
I-Hindsight bias luhlobo lokuthambekela kwengqondo apho abantu bebona iziganeko ezidlulileyo njengento engenakuthintelwa okanye eqikelelwayo. Ibangela ukuba abantu baziqinisekise ukuba bayayazi yonke indlela izinto eziya kwenzeka ngayo kwixesha elidluleyo.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, abantu badla ngokuqwalasela iimeko ezininzi zendlela izinto eziza kwenzeka ngayo kwixesha elizayo. Nangona kunjalo, sinokuqikelela kuphela ukuba iziganeko ziya kuhamba ngendlela ethile kodwa kungekhona ngokuthe ngqo njengoko bekuya kuba njalo ekugqibeleni.
Siza kuxoxa ngemizekelo yokujonga ngasemva kwaye mhlawumbi, ubukwimeko efanayo ngemizekelo embalwa kwesi sikhokelo.
Inkcazo yeHindsight Bias
I-Hindsight bias luhlobo lokuthambekela kobukrelekrele okwenza abantu bakholelwe ukuba isiganeko esithile sangaphambili besinokuqikelelwa ngakumbi okanye singenakuthintelwa. Oku kwenzeka ngenxa yokuba abantu bahlala bekholelwa ukuba bayasazi isiphumo somsitho wezemidlalo, isicwangciso seshishini, okanye ukuba ubudlelwane buya kuvela njani.
Abantu bakholelwa ukuba banokuqikelela isiphumo sesiganeko nangaphambi kokuba siqale.
Ngaba benza ezi ziqikelelo ngokusekelwe kuhlalutyo lwamanani okanye ngaba yimvakalelo nje ngaphakathi? Ewe, ngokombono wam, ndicinga ukuba kuninzi kokuba nemvakalelo kunokuhamba ngamanani okanye izibalo.
Kwezi ntsuku sibona abantu bexela kwangaphambili iimeko ezahlukeneyo zendlela izinto eziza kwenzeka ngayo kwixesha elizayo. Bazibona ngeso lengqondo ezi meko zahlukeneyo kodwa eneneni, abaqinisekanga ukuba yeyiphi na kuzo eya kwenzeka.
Nokuba yeyiphi na imeko edlalwayo emva kokuba benze ingqikelelo yabo, abantu baya kuba ngathi “Bayibonile isiza”. Kodwa ngaba baqale bacinga ngemeko eya kuthi ekugqibeleni idlale?
I-Hindsight bias kungenzeka ukuba yenzeke xa isiganeko esiqikelelweyo sivelisa isiphumo esibi. Abantu bathambekele ekuthatheni ingqalelo ngakumbi kwisiphumo esibi seziganeko kunesiphumo esihle.
I-Hindsight bias inokwenza abantu bacinge ukuba "bazi" ubudlelwane besibini abuyi kuhlala.
Funda kwakhona: Ziziphi iiNgcaciso zeNtlalo? (Iingcebiso kubafundi)
Imizekelo ye-Hindsight Bias
Makhe sijonge imizekelo embalwa yokuthatha icala.
Kubudlelwane
I-Hindsight bias inokwenza abantu bacinge ukuba "bazi" ubudlelwane besibini abuyi kuhlala.
Ngaba sinokuchonga ngokwenene Iiflegi ezibomvu phambi kokuba abadala ababini baqale ubudlelwane? Sihlala sisiva amagama anjengathi “Bendisazi ukuba unengxaki” okanye izinto ezinjengokuthi “Ndizamile ukukuxelela ukuba ibiziindaba ezimbi”.
Ukufumana iqabane eligqibeleleyo kubudlelwane obuhlala ixesha elide kunokubandakanya ukugqitha kuluhlu 'olunganguye umntu ofanelekileyo'. Ukukhangela iqabane eligqibeleleyo nelihambelanayo yinxalenye yohambo.
Ubudlelwane ngamanye amaxesha abuphumi ngendlela ebesilindele ukuba bube ngayo. Ewe, ukuphuma ngomhla wokuqala kudla ngokuba mnandi kunye namava akhumbulekayo.
Ekuqaleni kobudlelwane, asiyikuhoya ukuziphatha kwalo naluphi na uhlobo esingayi kunyamezela ixesha elide. Mhlawumbi ayiloxesha lokuqalisa ukukhalaza kwaye ukunika ixesha kuya kuyitshintsha imeko.
Kodwa, xa izinto ziqala ukuphuma esandleni kwaye asinakukwazi ukuyithatha, sithembele kwi-backsight bias kunye nomhlobo othembekileyo. Oku kuxa abahlobo bethu abasenyongweni beqala ukuthetha izinto ezinje "Ndandisazi ukuba oku kuya kwenzeka".
Ukuziqhelanisa neStock
Ukuba umthengisi stock oyingcali kubandakanya uxinezeleko oluninzi. Abantu abakulo msebenzi bafumana uxinzelelo kunye nokungalunganga malunga nesitokhwe kunokuba yingozi kukuzithemba komntu.
Ngokwenyani, abathengisi besitokhwe babonisa i-backndsight bias, ngakumbi kwintlanganiso yeqela. Intlanganiso yeqela inokubanjwa ukuze kuxoxwe ngezinto ezinokuthengwa kunye nendlela eya phambili.
Ngexesha lale ntlanganiso yeqela, izimvo ezininzi ziya kuchazwa kwaye ezinye ziya kuba yeyesitokhwe esithile kwaye ezinye ziya kuba ngokuchasene nezitokhwe ezithile.
Emva kwentlanganiso, iqela lagqiba ekubeni likhethe izitokhwe ezimbalwa oza kutyala kuzo. Bachitha izigidi bethenga inani lezabelo. Ukuba esinye sezabelo siyasilela, kuya kuhlala kukho iimpendulo ezininzi kwisiphumo samva nje.
Abantu baya kuqala ukuthetha izinto ezininzi ezifana "Bendisazi ukuba oku kuza kwenzeka" okanye "Bendisazi ukuba kuza kuhla".
Ukuthetha izinto ezinje akuyincedi imeko kwaye akumenzi nabani na azive engcono. Kodwa umntu othetha la mazwi kusenokwenzeka ukuba angachatshazelwa sesi siphumo sibi.
Ukwazisa ngeeMveliso eziNtsha
Kwishishini, injongo kukwenza izinto ezintsha, ukwenza iimveliso ezintsha ukuhenda abathengi. Nangona kunjalo, ukwazisa imveliso entsha kufuna izixhobo ezininzi.
Inkampani inokuchitha izigidi kuPhando kunye noPhuhliso kwimveliso entsha. Ukuze inkampani ikwazise imveliso yayo entsha eluntwini, kuya kufuneka ichithe imali eninzi kwiintengiso.
Ukuba imveliso entsha eye yaziswa eluntwini iyasilela kwaye izigidi ezichithwe kokubini ekwenzeni nasekubhengezeni zilahlekile, abantu baya kuthetha.
Oku kuya kuba ikakhulu ngabathatha izigqibo abakhalazela ukungabi nalwazi lwaneleyo. Uya kubona ukuthambekela kokujonga emva kwisenzo njengoko abenzi bezigqibo baya kukhalaza.
Funda kwakhona: 15 Imizekeliso Yokuziqhelanisa Nezimo
NgoMvulo Morning Quarterback
Umdlalo omhle webhola ekhatywayo yaseMelika ubukelwe zizigidi, ngakumbi ngexesha leSuper Bowl.
Enyanisweni, abalandeli bebhola baseMelika bahlala begxeka izenzo zabadlali kunye nabaqeqeshi. Sinabadlali abaninzi abanamava eminyaka kumdlalo.
Amaqela kwi-NFL alungelelene kwaye naliphi na iqela linokuphumelela umdlalo walo naluphi na usuku. Ngenxa yoku, ukuxela kwangaphambili iziphumo zemidlalo kunzima.
Kodwa ayithinteli ikota yasekuseni ngoMvulo eofisini.
Abalandeli bebhola badla ngokwenza amabango ambalwa athi umqeqeshi “bekufanele ukuba azi ngcono” ukuba lo mdlalo uza kubizwa lelinye iqela.
Iimpazamo zezopolitiko
Abezopolitiko badla ngokubonwa njengabangenabuchule nabangahlonelwayo. Sibabiza ngokungakwazi ukwenza amabhongo abo okuzingca.
Sibabiza ngokuba bangenabuchule kunye nokuzingca ngenxa yezithembiso zabo ezingenanto, izigqibo ezingezizo, kunye nokuphathwa kakubi kweemali zokuphuhlisa iziseko ezithile.
Sikhalazela indlela abaqhuba ngayo ezikhundleni kodwa ukuba sinikwe ithuba lokuba kweso sikhundla, akukho nto siyenzayo ngokwahlukileyo. Ukuba ngusopolitiki kufuna okungakumbi kunokuba sicinga.
Kunzima ukufumanisa ukuba omnye wezopolitiko ogqibeleleyo oya kukholisa wonke umntu ngomsebenzi wakhe eofisini.
Utitshala Ukhalimela Umfundi
Amaxesha amaninzi ootitshala bayabakhalimela abafundi babo ngezigqibo ezithile abazenzileyo ezinokuthi ngelo xesha zithathwe njengezidenge.
Ukuziphatha komntwana kubonisa ukuba unamava amancinci kwaye akakwazi ukuzenzela izigqibo. Kusekho kwinqanaba elisezantsi lophuhliso lobomi.
Masivume ukuba abantwana banokucaphukisa ngamanye amaxesha kwaye oku kunokubangela ukuba abantu abadala babangxolisa. Ootitshala umzekelo ngamanye amaxesha bayangxolisa abantwana.
Umntwana kufuneka athathe isohlwayo kungakhathaliseki ukuba yiyiphi na inzame eyenziwe ekuqaleni ukwenza izinto ngokufanelekileyo.
Noko ke, utitshala wenze iimpazamo ezininzi kubomi bakhe bonke. Isikhundla sakhe sangoku simnika ilungelo lokugweba umntwana.
Funda kwakhona: Yeyiphi iMizekelo yoHlahlelo lweeNtetho?
Ipleyiti Eyaphukileyo
Njengomntu omdala, uthatha isigqibo sokucoca ikhabhathi ekhitshini lakho. Uthatha ipleyiti, uyibeke phezu kwekhawuntara.
Uqhubeka nokucoca kwakho kwaye ngempazamo unkqonkqoza ipleyiti kwikhawuntara. Ipleyiti iyaqhekeka kumgangatho wekhitshi: oh hayi!
Ngoku kufuneka ucoce oko kwaye unokuzigxeka kwaye uthi "Bendifanele ukuba ndiyazi ukuba ndingafaki le pleyiti kwi-counter".
Ukuzibek’ ityala ngokungakwazi ukubona kwangaphambili ukuba bekuya kwenzeka ntoni ngepleyiti ngumzekelo wokungakhethi cala.
Ukubheja kuMahashe
Kukho iingoma ezininzi ezivumela ukubheja kwaye ziya kubonelela ngeencwadana ezincinci ngolwazi malunga namahashe kulo lonke uhlanga.
Le ncwadana incinci iya kuqulatha ulwazi oluthile malunga nehashe ngalinye njengobunzima balo kunye nerekhodi yalo yomdyarho, kunye nomzila eliwenza ngokugqwesileyo kwawo.
Ukubheja kumahashe kuyonwabisa kwaye kuyonwabisa ngakumbi ukuwabukela egxalathelana ngesantya esiphezulu. Nangona oku kumnandi kwaye kuchulumancisa, ukuqikelela ukuba leliphi ihashe eliza kuphumelela ugqatso kunzima ngakumbi.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, abantu baqikelela kwaye bayaphumelela kwaye baphuluke amaxesha amaninzi.
Nokuba sithini na isiphumo sogqatso, uya kuhlala usiva abantu ekupheleni kogqatso besithi “Bendisazi ukuba uza kuphumelela”. Lo ngomnye wemizekelo ye-backsight bias, ucinga ukuba uyazi ukuba izinto ziza kuhamba njani nangaphambi kokuba ziqale.
Izigqibo zokuQesha
Abafaki-zicelo bemisebenzi baya kuthi babonise i-resume egqwesileyo kwaye baqhube kakuhle kudliwano-ndlebe.
Intsebenzo ekholisayo kudliwano-ndlebe isenokungadlali ngendlela efanayo emsebenzini. Umqeshwa unokuba ulungile emsebenzini wakhe okanye ukubaqesha kunokuba yimpazamo enkulu kwinkampani.
Ekubeni isebe le-HR linoxanduva lokuqesha, ingcali ye-HR iya kuthi "Bendisazi ukuba bawulungele umsebenzi" ukuba ukuqeshwa kwakutshanje kuyaphumelela. Ukuba izinto bezingahambi njengoko bekucwangcisiwe, umphathi weHR usenokuthi “Bendisazi ukuba bebengagqibelelanga emsebenzini”.
Funda kwakhona: 10 yeSetyhula yokuqiqa imizekelo yobuxoki
Izenzo zomkhosi
Besibambene emqaleni oko sihamba nkqo. Ukutyhubela imbali, kuye kwakho iimfazwe ezininzi kwaza kwahlaselwa amazwe.
Kwi21 yokuqalast kwinkulungwane, ihlabathi lingqina ukuba i-United States ihlasela i-Iraq ngokusekelwe ekukrokreleni ukuba ilizwe laseAsia linesixhobo sokutshabalalisa. Abantu baseMelika bathi banobungqina bokuba i-Iraq inezo zixhobo zokutshabalalisa.
Uhlaselo lwaphela kwaye akukho nto yafunyanwa njengoko amaMelika ayesitsho.
Emva koko, iintatheli ezininzi zaqala ukutshintsha amabali abo. Phambi kohlaselo lwase-Iraq, kwakukho amanqaku amaninzi axhasa ingcamango yokuba ilizwe linezixhobo zokutshabalalisa.
isiphelo
I-Hindsight bias luhlobo lokuthambekela kobukrelekrele okwenza abantu bakholelwe ukuba isiganeko esithile sangaphambili besinokuqikelelwa ngakumbi okanye singenakuthintelwa. Oku kwenzeka ngenxa yokuba abantu bahlala bekholelwa ukuba bayasazi isiphumo somsitho wezemidlalo, isicwangciso seshishini, okanye ukuba ubudlelwane buya kuvela njani.
I-Hindsight bias kungenzeka ukuba yenzeke xa isiganeko esiqikelelweyo sivelisa isiphumo esibi. Abantu bathambekele ekuthatheni ingqalelo ngakumbi kwisiphumo esibi seziganeko kunesiphumo esihle.
izindululo
- Imizekelo ye-10 ye-Asynchronous yokufunda Amandla kunye nobuthathaka
- Umahluko phakathi kwesincoko esichazwayo kunye nesiXhobisayo
- Indlela yokusebenzisa iNgxelo yeSabelo
- Iindlela ezili-10 zokubeka izinto ezilindelweyo eziphezulu kwiKlasi
- Iindlela ezili-10 zokubeka izinto ezilindelweyo eziphezulu kwiKlasi
Ucaphulo
- Scribbr: Yintoni iHindsight Bias? | Inkcazo & nemizekelo
- UNjingalwazi oluncedo: Imizekelo ye-15 ye-Hindsight Bias
- Nirandfar: I-Hindsight Bias: Kutheni Usenza Ukhetho Olubi Lobomi
- JJJ Christensen-Szalanski, CF Willham – Ukuziphatha koMbutho kunye …, 1991: Ukujonga ngasemva: Uhlalutyo lwemeta
- NJ Roese, KD Vohs - Iimbono kwisayensi yengqondo, i-2012; I-Hindsight bias
- RF Pohl, E Erdfelder – Iingcamango ezikhohlisayo, 2016: Ukujonga izinto emva
Shiya iMpendulo